A measured peak is not a planning forecast. A planning forecast is not a contracted load. A listed generation project is not commissioned capacity.
Purpose
The paper establishes a defensible public-data view of Guyana electricity demand through 2030 and separates measured demand from development-enabled planning assumptions.
Evidence standard
The audited revision prioritises final regulatory orders and measured operating data for observed performance, current official plans for planning cases, and public project announcements only to the extent disclosed. Author calculations are identified separately.
Core findings
Guyana is moving from a historically constrained electricity system into a period where load growth, industrial policy and grid expansion interact. The paper tests multiple demand lenses rather than presenting one scenario as a guaranteed forecast.
Generation adequacy depends on project maturity, transmission and distribution readiness, reserve requirements, system reliability and the timing of large new loads. The grid is therefore part of the capacity question, not a secondary issue.
Decision use
The paper provides stress tests, project-maturity distinctions, a monitoring dashboard and conditions required for higher-demand scenarios to materialise. The analysis is independent and does not replace utility system studies, interconnection analysis or investment-grade engineering.